Overlay Publications
Your own accurate fair-odds lines for win bets and exotics -- the ultimate thoroughbred handicapping edge!

(918) 916-7574

Why We Win

Why We Win

The Overlay Advantage

What accounts for the pari-mutuel power of the items from Overlay Publications?

The answer lies in one word: VALUE.

Conventional thoroughbred handicapping products and "how-to" books deal solely in narrowing a field of horses down to the one that the developers or authors believe will cross the wire first, based on their personal ideas as to how the result of a race is determined.

Typically, these methods arrive at their conclusions in one of two ways:

(1) They create numerical ratings for the entrants through examination of one or more aspects of their records (such as speed, class, or pace), and then call for play on the horse that ranks highest; or

(2) They apply a series of qualifying rules to the field, and completely eliminate horses that fail any of them from all further consideration, until just one entrant is left.

But, no matter how each approach finds the horse to bet -- and regardless of how sophisticated and accurate each may be in its reasoning and calculations while doing so -- neither of them gives any thought to evaluating the prospects for victory of each individual horse in the race, or even assessing the exact chances of the final selection.

The main problem shared by both of these orientations is that no thoroughbred ever has a 100% guaranteed assurance of winning any given race -- however much the average marketer of horseplaying information would like you to believe otherwise.

(And that is if you can even make it past the obstacle pointed out in this startling public comment by one of the most skilled, respected, and popular makers of commercial pace figures in business today: "When I try to predict the pace scenario, I usually regret it.  Even when it is obvious, if it plays out, the betting takes away the value of being right most times.")

Nevertheless, those drawbacks do not keep most people from going no further with their handicapping than locating the horse that appears likeliest to finish in front (according to whatever system, angle, or tip sheet they may be using), and betting it to the hilt.

And, since there really are not any miraculous new performance secrets at the track, it is no great surprise that most racegoers end up conforming to the pattern noted by the pace handicapper quote above, and settling on the same standout horses -- whichever measures of equine ability different individuals are employing.

(But, just in case the patrons do not get the message, they are also given a healthy push in that direction by the morning-line odds that are included as part of each racing program, and that serve as the starting point for the betting on each race.)

So, as soon as wagering opens, cash begins to pour in on these public choices.

Now, as all handicappers should understand, the odds that continuously update on the track television monitors and infield "tote" board before each race are a reflection of the relative proportion of money bet on each thoroughbred to win.  The greater the amount of win wagers on a horse, the lower its odds will be (especially after the track deducts its normal "take" of 15% or more of the total amount wagered off the top of the win pool before calculating the share for each horse).

Consequently, the infusion of funds on these favored starters begins to drive their odds downward.

At that point, the herd psychology of horse-race betting takes over, and people who have not yet made up their minds about a wager convince themselves that "smart money" is responsible for this odds shift.

Not wanting to miss out on a "betting coup" in the making, they weigh in with their endorsement.  In the process, the odds on the affected horses keep falling until they are below fair value (the figure that would correspond to the true probability of winning).

Of course, these over-hyped, overbet non-bargains will still capture their share of races.  But, because their odds are lower than fair value, their actual return on a wager will not compensate for the all-too-common instances when the unexpected occurs, and they find one of the countless possible ways to lose a race they were "supposed" to win.  And standing in the payoff line is cold comfort to a handicapper whose net worth is headed south at the same time.

This is the flaw that sooner or later dooms all single-selection or elimination-type systems (no matter how fundamentally sound) to self-induced obsolescence.

By contrast, Overlay Publications specializes in products that will never become outdated or lose their earning ability as time passes, or as more people use them.

That is because they reveal the fair odds for full race fields, selected spot plays, and exotic-wager combinations by examining multiple basic handicapping variables, while avoiding the twin traps of either relying excessively on any one predictive indicator, or else going to the opposite extreme, and getting bogged down in endless dissection of repetitive or peripheral performance criteria.

This balanced perspective means that you will not be left with just a lone horse to bet, no matter how many other people may have zeroed in on it also.  Nor will you be forced into the no-win dilemma of deciding whether to spend hours of study on a single race program; or pay an arm and a leg to a selection service, while having no idea how it comes up with the horses it gives you; or buy handicapping software that may cost hundreds of dollars, but be as cryptic -- and require as much unquestioning faith -- as any tout regarding the mix of factors and weights it uses to rank a field, and then not be capable of translating that analysis into a winning probability for each horse.

Instead, using only a pocket calculator and widely available data that would be a standard component of past performances published by any source, you will be able to make your own timely, intelligent judgments about whether to bet a horse, switch to another overlaid entrant, or skip a race totally if the odds are not favorable.

We especially call your attention to that last statement, since nothing contributes more to needless losses at the track (even for good handicappers) than an inability or unwillingness to pass races where the odds on horses or combinations are too low to justify a wager of any size (if those players have bothered to consider what the true winning chances of their selections are in the first place).

But take it from us: when you have hard, documented evidence (the kind our methods will provide) clearly telling you that a particular horse is not worth a bet at its posted odds (even if it seems to be the single best horse in its field) -- and (more to the point) showing you exactly why the horse does not merit your support -- you will find it easier than you ever thought it could be to resist that dubious "sure thing", and to save your money for situations where the horse you like most has been neglected in the betting, and you are not handing dollars through the mutuel windows to try to win dimes.

However, at the same time (and this is what will really make you look forward to a day at the races!), the items from Overlay Publications offer those of us who can never get too much wagering activity the added bonus of knowing that we are betting with the probabilities of the game rather than against them.  Thus, the more we play, the greater the chance that proven performance trends will assert themselves -- and often at "boxcar" mutuels!

And (as if that were not enough!), in the unlikely event that no horses in a race are offering value in the win pool, there will almost surely be exotic combinations that are receiving far less notice than they deserve, and that are just waiting for us to capitalize on them!

(We are talking now to anyone who ever sat out race after race on a program waiting for a "prime" win bet to come along, and then either chose an also-ran in the one or two "playable" races on the card, or else got the finish correct, but received an anemic return that did not even cover daily expenses.  Why go through that kind of aggravation?)

Because our methods produce fair odds for horses and combinations, we do not need to drag out that old, tired "system-seller" line about having to limit the number of copies that can be sold.  Nor do we fear the natural question, "If you know the secret of making money at the track, why are you letting other people in on it?"

This is a query that the purveyors of garden-variety handicapping products cannot answer, since increased public knowledge reduces the odds on their "pick-the-winner-at-any-price" horses to bankroll-draining levels.

But when you handicap for value, you will not have to worry about whether your top choice is attracting too much betting action.  If it is, that just means that other entrants in the field will be overlays, presenting lucrative new investment options.

And perhaps, even after seeing all the advantages of looking for overlays (rather than just trying to pick winners), you will still be of a mind to play only the horse that you have pegged to finish first (whether you have used our handicapping model to arrive at your decision, or not).  In that case, our guides will then permit you to make wise cost/benefit wagering comparisons, and to concentrate your focus on situations where your potential payoff exceeds your betting risk.

Or you might want to mix your personal race analysis with the use of known performance metrics.  As an example, take the fact that one of the first three betting choices now wins about 75% of all races.  In light of this, you would like a clear forecast of which one of those three has the best chance of beating the other two.  Our products will not only give you the right horse, but also the right minimum odds you should demand on it, so that you can boost your rate of return even higher!

Or say that you are looking for a fast way to highlight the exotic-wager possibilities that might be present in a race, while also reducing the number of combinations you have to think about.  Just key on the horses that our odds line rates as having a better-than-random chance of winning, based on the size of the race field, and see how dramatically your success rate picks up!

Maybe you have had bad experiences with handicapping information that worked well initially, but later became outmoded.  Or, worse, it required updating every few years (or less), at the same cost as the original (or more).  We make those concerns a thing of the past!  Since our items are so firmly rooted in the bedrock truths of racing, our strategy will remain as relevant tomorrow as it is today.

(Imagine how it would affect your bottom line if you were certain -- both before and after a race -- that there could not possibly be (or have been) a more effective means of sorting a field of thoroughbreds out and betting on it!  No more outsmarting yourself in the process of continually shifting from one system to another.  No more constant second-guessing, or wondering how you could have overlooked that season-salvaging longshot with past performances that jump out at you -- now that the race is over!)

You might have even tried other products or services claiming to provide accurate betting lines, only to find that, even if all horses at each fair-odds level did actually win at a cumulative percentage rate corresponding to the odds that you were quoted, the majority of those winners went off at post-time odds that were below fair value (that is, as underlays), while the winning percentage of horses held at odds that were above fair value was not high enough to yield a net positive return.

But because our lines are grounded in a properly weighted, broadly based, multi-variable mix of fundamental, independent performance characteristics that do not rely on other factors for their predictive effectiveness, they retain their validity across all odds ranges!  In the aggregate, the public is notoriously hard to beat in setting odds.  However, despite that remarkable overall performance, the track crowd still can (and does) make glaring errors in judgment on individual horses in race after race each and every day.  And our methods turn those mistakes into profits with laser precision!

(And, for that matter, why be dependent on outside sources for fair odds at all, when you can learn how to calculate values of your own that are more accurate, and that allow you to see exactly how each horse received its rating, rather than having to trust a betting line without knowing what went into its creation, while also being required to pay over and over for the information?  As the old proverb accurately put it, "Give someone a fish and they eat for a day.  Teach someone to fish and they eat for a lifetime.")

And do not give up hope if you have been frustrated by the newest impediment to betting success (courtesy of nationwide simulcasting and internet wagering) -- infuriating late odds drops that cause horses that are overlays when a race starts to lose value even while the race is being run, due to last-minute money pouring into the betting pools.  With our titles, help is on the way!

Thanks to the pari-mutuel system, as the odds on those select horses fall, the odds on other horses in the field will rise, creating even greater overlays on existing value plays.  And, since our items provide you with a full-field view of winning chances, this means (even in the event that your wagering outlet does not already allow for conditional bets on horses based on their last available odds) that you will have maintained visibility of those other horses, and will be in the best possible position to reap even bigger rewards on the inevitable occasions when those late droppers disappoint their supporters, and an overlay that you will have already bet wins at even higher odds than it would otherwise have paid!

PLUS, our money-management strategy features a betting plan that allows for including those high-probability last-flash underlays in a group wager, and receiving an even higher rate of return than if you had left them out!

You do not just have to take our word about the ongoing usefulness of our products, either.  In addition to the glowing customer testimonials on our home page, we are also proud that leading handicapping sources such as American Turf Monthly and Gamblers Book Club have prominently included our titles in their online stores and hard-copy catalogs for years!  These longstanding affiliations say all that needs to be said about the applicability (and profitability) of our titles over time and changing playing conditions.  (Now, if those same fine outlets only matched the savings of our terrific package discount offer...!)

On top of all this, you do not even have to be at the track!  Our tactics work just as effectively at any off-track or simulcast venue where you can see the odds and probable payoffs of horses and combinations as they do at the track itself.  In fact, with the current fast-paced simulcasting scene, where players have a coast-to-coast smorgasbord of tracks and races to choose from, and there is just not the time that there used to be for the in-depth study of individual race-course idiosyncrasies, or for line-by-line review of the past performances of each horse running, our products are the answer to the two greatest needs of the simulcast bettor: speed of analysis, and accuracy in deciding which wagering opportunities offer the greatest profit potential!

At Overlay Publications, we believe that quality of information matters more than volume.  We readily concede that we do not carry the assortment of thoroughbred handicapping material available from some other sources.  Nor do we plan to develop and market an endless succession of additional, totally different methods and approaches in the future (at continually increasing expense to customers), while promoting each one as the new "ultimate answer" to the handicapping puzzle.  And why is that?  Because our current products already calculate the actual winning chances for horses and exotic-wager combinations, and determine the optimum betting strategy with respect to both wager type and size in every pari-mutuel situation, using a model that will never lose its validity!  Under those circumstances, what else is there -- or could there possibly be -- for us to say (or for a handicapper to require)?

Questions or comments (before or after ordering)?  E-mail us at overlaypublications@hotmail.com, or call us at (918) 916-7574.  (Use the Paypal links on our Products page for ordering purposes.)  (We welcome and actively solicit your suggestions on how we can otherwise meet your handicapping needs or earn your business!)  

Join the elite group of horseplayers who regularly beat the game!  Go to our Products page now to place your order, and never accept less than fair value on a wager again!







Overlay Publications

Your own accurate fair-odds lines for win  bets and exotics -- the ultimate thoroughbred handicapping edge!  
Copyright (c) 21 July 2023 Overlay Publications

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